W. 51 Policy Watch
Global
2025 has redrawn the trade map.
The US-EU deal (signed 30 June) locks a 15 % baseline tariff on EU cars, steel & pharma while scrapping most EU duties on US goods; Swedish exporters now face either paying the tariff or localising production.
Front-loading before the deal and post-deal redirection mean Swedish goods exports to the US will fall 7.9 % in 2026 and a further 1.2 % in 2027 as inventories unwind and US buyers switch to domestic suppliers.
CBAM definitive phase (1 Jan 2026) adds €75/tCO₂ certificates on steel, cement, aluminium & hydrogen – UK importers must now budget for carbon certificates even if the UK-EU linkage treaty later refunds them.
US “De Minimis” scrapped (30 July) – duty-free €800 threshold gone; Swedish e-commerce parcels now attract USD 80-200 duties, forcing SMEs to localise or lose price competitiveness
UK
UK-US trade deal (30 June) cuts UK car tariffs to zero and removes steel/aluminium duties but keeps the 10 % blanket on other goods; UK exports to the US fell £0.7 bn in August 2025 as machinery & chemicals absorbed the new duties. CBAM linkage consultation closes 31 Jan 2026 – submit 2026 shipment/emissions data now to keep the £800 m refund clause in the final treaty.
EU / Sweden
Riksbank memo (May 2025) lists steel, cars, aluminium, copper, pharma, and semiconductors as next-in-line for US tariffs, with many prominent Swedish companies already shifting production to Mexico/US to bypass duties. Stronger SEK (vs USD & EUR) erodes kronor proceeds; EKN expects 2026 Swedish goods exports to the US down 7.9 %, total exports still +3.4 % thanks to EU & Asia diversion. WTO projects 3.6 % global trade growth in 2025 but warns H2 2025-2026 will see “pass-through” of tariffs to final prices and lower profit margins.
What to watch in 2026
Watch for shifting carbon rules – refunds, certificates and green-premium spreads
Track new tariff corridors – US-EU deal reviews and any Asia extension
Keep an eye on digital customs pilots – pre-clearance and data-sharing roll-outs
Monitor mobility fast-tracks – bilateral quotas and qualification-portal launches
Review
Overall, 2025 has redrawn the global trade map. In 2026, members can expect continued emphasis on shifting tariff corridors, carbon-led pricing and digital-duty compliance, areas where early preparation will be beneficial.
Local
Focusing more on Sweden-UK trade and EU policy, 2025 has seen a significant focus on data management and AI, with anticipations for 2026 largely centred around the implementation of measures such as the EES, as well as the EU Data Act/ AI Act.
2025
EU Entry/Exit System (EES): Businesses prepared for the digital registration of non-EU short-stay travellers, with UK-EU mobility planning becoming a priority.
Data & AI Regulation: Implementation of the EU Data Act and AI Act progressed, influencing how Swedish and UK firms manage data access, transparency, and AI use.
Sustainability Rules: Companies adapted to expanding EU ESG and supply-chain due-diligence requirements, shaping procurement and reporting for UK-Sweden operations.
Trade Measures: The European Commission moved to tighten steel import measures, with potential implications for sectors active in both markets.
What to watch in 2026
Final rollout timelines for EES and related impacts on business travel.
New compliance deadlines under Data/AI regulation, offering opportunities for UK-Sweden digital collaboration.
Further guidance on ESG reporting, especially for cross-border supply chains.
Possible adjustments in EU trade defence measures, affecting pricing and competitiveness.
Review
Overall, 2025 strengthened the regulatory foundations shaping UK-Sweden trade. In 2026, members can expect continued emphasis on digital governance, sustainability, and streamlined mobility, areas where early preparation will be beneficial.