W. 49 Policy Watch
Global
While Week 47 showed the draft treaty promise of mutual CBAM exemption, this week the EU’s definitive rule-book (published 20 Oct 2025) kicks in: from 1 January 2026 importers must buy and surrender EU carbon certificates (price of €75/tCO₂) and apply for “authorised declarant” status by 31 March 2026 (exemption or not). Certificates go on sale 1 February 2027, giving firms nine extra months to gather verified emissions and hedge price risk.
UK
British importers will avoid the new certificate bill once the UK-EU linkage treaty is ratified, but must still register and submit 2026 supplier data to claim the future refund. The UK’s own CBAM starts 1 January 2027 and the Treasury has confirmed expected £800 million savings and a 0.1 % GDP uplift under a linked scenario.
EU
For Swedish and other EU producers, the definitive regime means cash-flow relief (purchase only in 2027) and a 50-tonne annual mass exemption that removes 90% of SMEs from scope, while large importers (more than 50 t/yr) must apply for declarant status now or face shipment blocks at EU borders from 1 February 2026.
Review
For exporters, the 2027 cash-flow delay is helpful, but the 31 Mar declarant deadline is immovable: miss it and goods simply won’t clear customs. Overall, the rule tilts purchasing toward verified low-carbon suppliers and makes “green steel” a price-competitive advantage rather than a marketing slogan.
Local
The UK government has released its Annual Budget for 2025, outlining a fiscal plan aimed at stabilising public finances while maintaining a predictable environment for businesses.
UK
The Budget raises approximately £26 billion through higher taxation of property, dividend and savings income, alongside an extended freeze in personal tax thresholds.
From April 2027, rental and investment income will be taxed 2 percentage points higher across all income bands.
The government has also introduced a High Value Council Tax Surcharge starting in April 2027, applying to residential properties valued above £2 million, with annual charges between £2,500 and £7,500.
Business groups have expressed relief that major corporate tax rates remain unchanged, but individual investors and landlords will face a tighter fiscal landscape.
Investment priorities were also highlighted, including continued commitments to skills, infrastructure and local growth programmes. The Treasury’s approach aims to balance revenue generation with measures designed to support competitiveness and long-term productivity.
Sweden
For Swedish companies with operations or investments in the UK, the Budget reinforces the importance of monitoring property-related tax rules and evolving market conditions.
Changes affecting rental income, high-value property ownership and household disposable income may influence forecasts for retail, real estate and financial services.
At the same time, the UK’s decision to avoid increases in core business taxation aligns with Swedish interests in maintaining a stable and predictable environment for cross-border investment. Swedish firms active in infrastructure, energy and skills development may also benefit from continued UK funding in these areas.
Review
The UK Annual Budget 2025 signals a continued emphasis on fiscal consolidation through targeted tax rises while preserving stability for businesses. For both UK and Swedish stakeholders, the measures present practical considerations for investment planning, market strategy and long-term positioning as further guidance is released.